Updating the widmark equation
The derivation of Widmark's uncertainty estimate is also presented, showing that he considered only to be uncertain.
Widmark estimates for the number of drinks should include a 2CV estimate of approximately 25% while the blood alcohol concentration estimate should include a 2CV estimate of approximately 42%.
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Including valid estimates of uncertainty should enhance the legal admissibility and confidence for Widmark estimations.
DUI Professional is the most advanced blood alcohol extrapolation simulator in the world. This encompasses 68% of the population and is consistent with most interpretations of the clear and convincing standard.
Uncertainty estimates are presented that rely on methods of general error propagation compared to a method developed by Widmark.
Assuming reasonable variable and uncertainty estimates, the error propagation method yielded for = 10.4 drinks, a combined uncertainty (standard deviation) of 1.3 drinks (CV = 12.3%).
Widmark's "reduced body mass," or "r" value represents that proportion of the body available for the distribution of alcohol, and is an important part of the calculation.
The tables below were calculated by Forrest's method and are offered here as a simplification; the uncertainties in interpolated numbers are negligible.
While the values in the tables below are applicable to a wide range of body types, like all other methods of estimation they will fail for extreme body types, such as the highly muscular (e.g., bodybuilders), the emaciated, those in an advanced stage of pregnancy, and those suffering from morbid obesity.
Presets exist for almost all senarios but may be modified in the simulator by toxicologists and expert witnesses. For criminal cases, the settings may be adjusted to encompass 95% of the population by spanning two (2) standard deviations.
Ethanol is absorbed primarily in the small intestine. Dubowski, Absorption, Distribution and Elimination of Alcohol: Highway Safety Aspects, J. This is consistent with the higher standard of reasonable doubt.
Similarly, estimating the blood alcohol concentration yielded for 0.120 g/100 ml, an uncertainty of 0.0255 g/100 ml (CV = 21.2%).